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Biased poll?

The “Azimuth Group,” a polling group from Texas, published results from a poll that appear to give Ron Paul a distinct advantage over Rick Perry in the Texas Republican Primary.

It’s important to note that this poll was conducted in late May and early June and was published in early July, before Governor Perry announced his entry into the race. For some reason, the results are getting re-posted on various Paul blogs and Facebook sites.

Moreover, look at the column on their methods:

Most importantly, they polled Texas Republican Primary voters, while our sample focused on highly involved Republican voters with clusters in the most politically active Republican areas of the state and using lists taken not only from voter rolls but also from  other sources likely to identify voters whose awareness of candidates and issues is substantially higher.  Basically, they polled voters and we polled more of the grassroots party activists who will influence those voters.

In other words, rather than choosing likely voters or even Republican Primary voters, they cherry-picked who they polled.

 

Another blog has this quote from founder Dave Nalle:

“In that poll,” he replied, “It was a mix of precinct chairs, campaign donors, and multiple-repeat voters in Republican primaries. So at the very least they were reliable Republican voters, but a majority of them, about 55%, were actively involved in party organizations, either in clubs or as precinct chairs. I was able to get lists because I have connections within the Texas Republican Party. I was able to get lists from local Republican clubs and from precinct chairs in those parties.”

In contrast, a poll of Republican Primary voters at about the same time showed that Perry would have received 31% of the vote.

 

 

Perry, Palin: fish or cut bait!

It’s time for Governor Sarah Palin and Governor Rick Perry to fish or cut bait. Conservatives must begin the process of forming a coalition that can beat Obama. Like everyone else in the Nation, I’m waiting for an announcement from one or both, declaring their candidacy for the Republican nomination for President.

However, Conservatives must remember that we are first of all Conservatives, not Palin-supporters or Perry-supporters. Our true enemy is big government and threats to our Conservative ideals. We must strive to conduct the 2012 Primary in order to build up and not tear down fellow Conservatives and avoid writing the Dem’s ads or making the progressive spoilers stronger.

Today, Governor Palin “reTweeted” an essay written by one of her supporters on the blog Conservatives4Palin. The article is absolutely more pro-Palin than anti-anyone, and rightly praises her for her accomplishments  in her two years in office in Alaska.  Unfortunately, the fact that she shared the piece is being touted as proof that Governor Palin will run and/or will not endorse Governor Perry.

If we are going to begin to compare the candidates, I would like to see a true comparison that properly evaluates Governor Perry’s 10 years in office:

1. that doesn’t mix liabilities and debt

  • Texas has  a Constitution that requires a balanced budget.
  • Texas does not allow the Governor a line item veto.
  • Occasionally, we have to dip into our “rainy day fund” for Katrina, Rita, Ike, wildfires and other unexpected expenses.
  • Governor Perry oversaw two years of hard cuts in Texas, in 2003 and 2011.

2. the equivalent calculation considering relative population through the years and in light of Texas’ originally higher population compounded by growth of approximately 1000 a day, mostly from people who move here from other parts of the US,

3. the relative burden of illegals crossing the Rio Grande

4. the Federal  Department of Justice, Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Homeland Security policy of transporting illegals from all areas of the US to Texas prior to deportation.

  • Texas has eleven (11) ICE detention facilities where the detainees are often criminals from other States.  Alaska has none – 0. California, 6 and Arizona, 5.
  • The Department of Homeland Security and ICE have been dismissing these cases in large numbers over the last 2 years, releasing illegals into our State.
  • Our courts and State bear up under the backlog, with legal costs and law enforcement expenses.
  • ICE Detention Centers list here.
  •  Here is a Houston Chronicle article on the dismissal of several thousand cases and anticipation of up to 17,000 of 23,000 pending cases last August, 2010. Note these are often people convicted in other States who served time in prison and then transported to the detention centers, according to this article.

(edited at 5 AM, to add note that “Texas does not allow the Governor a line item veto.” BBN)

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